It’s that time of year again! Our WRAL Severe Weather team is ready to roll out our winter weather predictions. For the second year in a row, it looks like we’re staying in a La Niña pattern through most of the winter.
We’re already in a La Niña pattern. That’s when sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are cooler than normal. And according to NOAA, that setup is expected to stick around most of the winter. In La Niña years, the main storm tracks usually stay north of us, keeping the coldest air bottled up there, too.
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Historically, about 64% of La Niña winters bring us below-normal snowfall and above-normal temperatures.
Since 1950, we’ve seen 22 La Niñas. Fifteen of those had below-normal snow, five were above, and two came in right around normal. So for snow lovers, the odds aren’t exactly in our favor!
Our overall snow trend has been going down. Over the last 5 years, we averaged 2.3” each winter. Compare that to the past 75 years, when the average was closer to 6.9 inches.
There’s still some hope for the snow lovers out there. Even though we were in a La Niña last winter, we still picked up 4.8” of snow at RDU. So, there’s still a chance we can break out the sleds this year.
One big reason? Our winters are getting warmer. Since 1970, average winter temperatures have climbed about 5.6 degrees. And just a one-degree difference can mean the difference between getting a cold rain or some snow.
Based on our La Niña setup and the long-term climate trends, it just doesn’t look good for snow lovers.
The bottom line is bad news for snow lovers
The normal snowfall for our area is around 5 to 6 inches of snow. This year, we are forecasting 1 to 3 inches of snow. And overall, we expect temperatures to be warmer compared to normal.
